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On Our Minds

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May 2022 Market Update

Below are a couple of my thoughts on the market. 

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Top Heavy = Top Losses

This chart is from today’s Wall Street Journal. Because of their heavy weights in the S&P 500 index, eight companies make up half of the stock market’s 14% decline year to date. It is notable that the value index was only down 3%, while the technology-heavy growth indexes are down 25%. As usual, the S&P 500, which includes both, splits the difference.

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Diversification Saves in Down Markets

The Russell 3000 Index is made up of the largest 2,750 stocks in the United States.

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Which Estate Planning Documents Do I Need?

Estate planning is the process of deciding who will receive an individual’s assets, who will manage their financial affairs if incapacitated, and settle the estate after death. Estate planning is necessary for anyone who owns property that they wish to pass down to a relative, close friend, or charitable interests, and to name a guardian for minor children or provide care for pets. 

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Daily Median Income for World

From 2001 to 2017, the daily median income doubled for everyone in the world.

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Selling Low

The rule of thumb is to buy low and sell high.

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Winning is Hard, Staying a Winner is Even Harder

 

S&P Dow Jones Indices has published their updated U.S. Persistence Scorecard. A mere 2.2% of actively managed U.S. domestic equity funds in the top quartile for 12 months performance at the end of 2019 stayed ahead of three-quarters of their peers when measured two years later.

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Real Estate vs. Stock Market

Past performance is no predictor of future success, but it is interesting to compare the past performance of different investments.

These charts show the value of $100 invested in real estate (red) and the stock market (blue.)

The chart above shows that over the last 15 years, the stock market was the place to be.

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Best vs. Worst

Some investment managers promote a strategy called “Sector Rotation” where they try to time the market by trading between the 11 major sectors of the economy. The gains can be tempting, but the risk is high. For instance if you owned all energy stocks, you would be up +40% year to date, but if you thought communications was the place to be, you would be down -20%. This is a possible difference of 60% in your returns. According to the chart, which includes more sub sectors, the difference is the highest since 2000.

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Sale and Dividends

There are two ways to make money in stocks:

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