Samuel serves as Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Officer for the Crews family of banks. He manages the individual investment holdings of his clients, including individuals, families, foundations, and institutions throughout the State of Florida. Samuel has been involved in banking since 1996 and has more than 20 years experience working in wealth management.
Investments are not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the bank, are not FDIC insured, not insured by any federal government agency, and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of principal.
S&P Dow Jones Indices has published their updated U.S. Persistence Scorecard. A mere 2.2% of actively managed U.S. domestic equity funds in the top quartile for 12 months performance at the end of 2019 stayed ahead of three-quarters of their peers when measured two years later.
Past performance is no predictor of future success, but it is interesting to compare the past performance of different investments.
These charts show the value of $100 invested in real estate (red) and the stock market (blue.)
The chart above shows that over the last 15 years, the stock market was the place to be.
Some investment managers promote a strategy called “Sector Rotation” where they try to time the market by trading between the 11 major sectors of the economy. The gains can be tempting, but the risk is high. For instance if you owned all energy stocks, you would be up +40% year to date, but if you thought communications was the place to be, you would be down -20%. This is a possible difference of 60% in your returns. According to the chart, which includes more sub sectors, the difference is the highest since 2000.
I think about this chart often during discussions with clients on having too much exposure to single stocks.
Real estate is unique since humans need a physical place to live and work. Economics says the price of those physical places is constrained by the cost of the physical labor to build them.
Duration describes the time it takes for a bond holder to get all their money back and/or the change in price for each 1% change in the interest rate.
This chart from an article in today’s Wall Street Journal shows the percentage of funds that underperformed the S&P 500 in the last 12 years. Again, passive indexes beat 85% of the active managers last year, and the majority have done so for 12 consecutive years. This is one of the reasons why we champion passive index funds.
I am reminded of this chart every time I drive by a car lot. Before the pandemic, financing and insurance profits made up 70% of the dealer’s profits. Now, due to price appreciation of their inventory, that percentage has changed. However, the dollar profits from financing and insurance continue to increase. Car dealers have become more like finance and insurance companies.
Below is a great chart from Putnam, which shows that over the last 15 years, if you missed the top 10 best days of market gains, your return would have gone from 10.66% to only 5.05%.
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